2017 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win


We're a week a way from the Oscars, now it's time for predictions. For what it's worth, I always get the technical categories wrong. Seriously, I have to look up the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing every year for a reminder. You'd think after doing this for 8 years I'd remember. Anyways, here's who I think will win, and in some cases, who should in. 

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell Or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight
Who will win: La La Land
Who should win: Moonlight or Hidden Figures
La La Land NOT winning at this point would be a bigger shock than Crash swooping in over Brokeback Mountain. I like La La Land a lot, I just happened to like a few other films more. 


Best Actor
Casey Affleck - Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences
Who will and should win: Denzel Washington
I'm making a bold prediction here. I think Denzel will have gathered enough steam to beat Casey Affleck. Sure, Affleck will have the Globe and likely the BAFTA later today (they didn't even nominate Denzel) but him winning the SAG is huge. I think Casey's sexual assault accusations will catch up to him and it'll show on Oscar night.


Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone  - La La Land
Meryl Streep  - Florence Foster Jenkins
Who will win: Emma Stone (or Isabelle Huppert as a dark horse)
Who should win: Natalie Portman
Natalie Portman not winning this is a shame. Seriously, she's spectacular in Jackie. I haven't seen Elle yet. My theater has it, but I don't know if I can sit through it. I'm not sure if the Academy will award her in a rapey film over Emma in their Oscar darling.


Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges  -Hell Or High Water
Lucas Hedges  -Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel - Lion
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals
Who will win: Mahershala Ali
Who should win: Him, Patel, or Shannon.
I love Ali in Moonlight and I will be so happy when he wins. I do think Dev Patel was better in Lion though. 


Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis - Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
Who will and should win: Viola Davis
There's no one else. 


Best Director
Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Who will and should win: Damien Chazelle
La La Land was wonderfully directed. I think he takes this along with Best Picture. 


Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Who will and should win: Moonlight
I don't see this as a lock for La La Land. I think Moonlight looked better. 


Best Documentary Feature
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
13th
Who will win: 13th
Who should win: ?
I haven't seen I Am Not Your Negro yet, but I think that has a decent chance of winning too. I've only seen 13th and OJ: Made in America. I like both, but I really don't think OJ should've been eligible here. It was a mini series. Who went to see a 7 hour doc in theaters?


Best Documentary Short Subject
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Who will win: Watani: My Homeland
Who should win: ?
I haven't seen any of these, I'm just guessing based off their subject matter.


Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Who will win: Sing
Who should win: ?
Again, I haven't seen any of these. Sing seems to have the best reviews, so Silent Nights sounds like something I'd watch. 


Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Who will win: Toni Erdmann
Who should win: A Man Called Ove
I've only seen Ove, but Toni Erdmann has been winning everything. I think The Salesman could see a surge too, so I wouldn't count that out. 


Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Who will and should win: Arrival


Best Film Editing
Arrival 
Hacksaw Ridge 
Hell or High Water 
La La Land 
Moonlight 
Who will win: La La Land
Who should win: Hacksaw Ridge
The only thing Hacksaw has going for it is that the 2nd half is very technical and should win, but La La Land needs to rack up more wins. I think they'll take one here. 


Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Who will win: The Jungle Book
Who should win: Doctor Strange
I can't see anyone but Jungle Book taking this, though I think Doctor Strange was the best film visually I saw all year. Still pissed Civil War didn't make it in. 


Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Who will and should win: La La Land
Present day films never win in the costume category, it's always older ones or period pieces. I'd like to see La La Land take this one just for Mia's wardrobe alone. 


Best Makeup and Hair Styling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Who will win: A Man Called Ove
Who should win: Anyone but Suicide Squad
Star Trek Beyond has great make up but I could see the Academy going for a quieter film like Ove. It would be a very deserving win.


Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Who will and should win: Hacksaw Ridge


Best Original Score
Jackie 
La La Land 
Lion 
Moonlight 
Passengers 
Who will win: La La Land
Who should win: Jackie, Moonlight, Lion.
Those three had amazing scores that beautifully shaped their movies. I would really rather them win. La La Land score wise had Mia and Sebastian's theme, which I liked. But it wasn't as good as the others. I'm not very confident that it will win here, but I think the Academy will try to give it as many Oscars as possible in categories where they can pretend it was the best. 


Best Original Song
“Audition” - La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” - Trolls
“City of Stars” - La La Land
“The Empty Chair” - Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” - Moana
Who will win: City of Stars
Who should win: How Far I'll Go
How Far I'll Go is catchy AF. I've been listening to it ever since I saw Moana. City of Stars is a great song too (though I like Audition better) so I think it wins. Still bitter about Drive It Like You Stole it not being here. 


Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival 
Fences 
Hidden Figures
Lion 
Moonlight
Who will and should win: Moonlight
I love all of these films. I think Hidden Figures might actually have a shot at winning this now too, but it should stay with Moonlight which was the boldest film of the year. 


Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water 
La La Land 
The Lobster 
Manchester By the Sea 
20th Century Women 
Who will win: La La Land
Who should win: The Lobster
La La Land, while a great film does NOT have a great screenplay. It shouldn't be in this category at all. The Lobster is by far the most original thing here. 


Best Production Design
Arrival 
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
Hail Caesar
La La Land 
Passengers
Who will and should win: La La Land


Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Who will and should win: Zootopia
That's still my favorite animated film of the year. I haven't seen Red Turtle or Zucchini. I'd be happy with a Moana win too. Kubo, while pretty, wasn't the greatest



Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Who will win: Piper
Who should win: ?
I've only seen Piper and I love it. I can't say much else. 

9 comments:

  1. I am betting Lobster will get this sole win because it is so unique. la La Land will sweep a lot of awards and I can't see how a musical would not win in best score. I still believe Casey Affleck will win over Denzel but agree that Viola will take best actress. We are now on the 1 week countdown. Oh, I watched Les Miserables and it was good. I didn't mind Russell Crowe's singing even though he was the weakest of the bunch. He got such a backlash and when I heard the song sung by Emma and Ryan, I am dumbfounded why no one says anything negative about Ryan's singing. It is not very good, he warbles andhis voice is weak. I think it is because Russell was The Gladiator and a he man where Ryan is considered a heart throb and Mr. Romantic.

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    1. EXACTLY Crowe is a stronger vocalist than Gosling. I don't see how there isn't more people calling him out on it. Stone too, actually. She's not a strong vocalist either.

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  2. I would LOVE to see Fences or Hidden Figures win!

    Denzel should definitely win, and I actually think he will.

    I really want Ruth Negga to win.

    Absolutely Mahersala should and will win.

    Seriously, I see no one but Viola.

    Arrival should win cinematography.

    I hear you on the O.J. doc (thought it is SO good). I think I Am Not Your Negro has the edge. It's also a brilliant film.

    I hate Hacksaw Ridge SO MUCH. Arrival or Moonlight should win editing.

    I love Jungle Book, but yes Doctor Strange should win.

    I actually find the costume design category VERY uninspiring. I don't care who wins there.

    Arrival should win sound mixing.

    If I have to give La La Land anything, it could go ahead and win best score and best song. Period.

    I really need Fences to win adapted screenplay.

    20th Century Women should win original screenplay.

    ZOOTOPIA!!!!!

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    1. I think Denzel really could win, and I hope he does.

      I really want to see I Am Not Your Negro but it's not playing here :( OJ was a great doc, but I still don't think it should've been eligible.

      I meed to see 20th Century Women too! My indie theater is trying to get it, but they ended up with Elle instead lol.

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  3. "Anyone but Suicide Squad" made me LOL.
    I will absolutely jump for joy if Denzel wins! He definitely deserves it.
    I like to still think Dev has a chance too, he won the BAFTA but he's a British lad so it wasn't much of a shock.

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    1. I'd say Ali has this in the bag but the fact that he missed the Globe and the BAFTA is pretty significant, I think.

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  4. Im so not into Oscars this year that La La Blah thing is gonna keep winning everything and even if not the only one I root for is Shannon and he is probably gonna lose:/ the whole race is so dull hopefully Gibson flings feces on red carper

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    1. Yeah but drinking during this would be a waste of % which can be spent on far more rewarding Milk Money rewatch lol

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